Niti AI / Industries / D2C & ecommerce
D2C budget & growth decisions · outcomes measured
Niti is a revenue decision system for D2C and ecommerce: it reconciles channel-reported ROAS with store-confirmed contribution, then ranks budget, pricing, and inventory actions — each with estimated impact, margin gates, and outcomes measured at T+7 to T+30. For India and US founders, performance heads, and CMOs spending ₹15L–1Cr+ (or $150K+) a month, where the weekly deck and the bank are quietly 60–70% apart.
The review nobody wants to run
A funded D2C brand was spending ₹80L a month across Meta and Google. The agency's blended ROAS: 3.2. Independent server-side computation against Shopify: 1.9. Scale decisions had been made for months on numbers 68% higher than what the store actually confirmed.
Meanwhile a fashion brand scaled a denim campaign to ₹6.2L over eight days. The SKU went out of stock on day three. Nobody found out until day eight, when returns started spiking — ₹6.2L spent sending traffic to a page that couldn't convert for five of those days.
And the new Head of Performance who just joined? They paused the WhatsApp retention campaigns to "test the channel properly." The previous team had already run that exact test. The finding was in a deck nobody could find. The repeat cost ₹8L.
What it costs
Each of these was invisible inside the tool that was supposed to catch it — the ad platform dashboard, the agency deck, the Shopify analytics view. None of them are built to check spend against margin, stock, or a second data source. Niti is built to do only that.
What changes
True ROAS computed on eligible days only — out-of-stock days and sale-distorted days excluded — so the number isn't quietly inflated by periods your ad platform can't see the difference on. The overclaim, per channel, becomes a number your CMO can put in a board deck.
The decision queue is constraint-gated: nothing is recommended to scale without checking margin and stock cover first. Every recommendation carries an estimated ₹ impact — not a suggestion, a specific number you can hold the system to.
Campaigns are automatically blocked from scaling once a SKU has under seven days of velocity-estimated cover. Named campaigns, estimated daily waste, before the ₹6.2L mistake happens — not eight days after.
Every SKU graded A+ through NR on contribution (average ROAS × effective gross margin, on eligible days). The inversions — heaviest spend on your worst-margin SKU — become visible in one screen instead of a CFO discovering it at a budget review.
A media-mix model with a channel-contribution Sankey: ad spend on one channel to revenue on another, including the Meta-to-Flipkart halo effect most tools can't see because they only read one settlement file.
One click: the external factors — CPM shifts, competitor promos, demand index moves — behind an anomalous week. Built for the CMO who needs to defend a number in a leadership meeting without guessing.
The gate that matters here
The decision queue checks two things before it will ever suggest SCALE: velocity-estimated stock cover, and contribution margin. A campaign that clears both still has to earn its recommendation on marginal ROI. One that fails either is suppressed and named — not left for someone to notice on day eight.
Proof, not promise
On a live account, 53 decisions have been tracked end to end: 12 favourable, 38 neutral, 3 unfavourable. That's the real distribution — including the ones that didn't work, which is the part most vendors don't show you.
| Outcome class | Count | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Favourable | 12 | Confirmed positive result against the estimate |
| Neutral | 38 | No material change either direction — held or logged |
| Unfavourable | 3 | Didn't work. Kept in the record, not hidden. |
Live account data, illustrative labelling. The three unfavourable outcomes are the ones that make the other fifty credible.
FAQ
Budget reallocation, scale/reduce/pause calls, discount and pricing moves, and inventory-aware spend gates — each with an estimated contribution impact and a measured outcome window.
Niti reconciles channel-reported performance against store-confirmed contribution so scale decisions are made on the number that hits the bank, not the number in the agency deck.
$1K activation + $2K/mo. If no confirmed favourable outcome lands within 45 days, month two is credited. Activation covers real setup work and is non-refundable.
Use Services for onboarding and COGS/identity cleanup, or start with the free margin audit.
Explore
The 45-day Platinum Pilot
Activation is real analyst work — margin config, API connections, campaign-to-SKU mapping, and your first tracked decision — which is why it's non-refundable. The guarantee sits on the subscription, not the activation: if no confirmed favourable outcome is logged within 45 days, month two is credited. We charge full price because we know what this does; the guarantee handles your risk, not ours.